(Photo: Athletic Brewing)

During a recent interview at the WSJ Global Food Forum, Athletic Brewing CEO Bill Shufelt predicted that non-alcoholic products may soon make up half of annual beer sales — a far cry from the category’s current 2% market share.

“Beer used to be a five- or even seven-day-a-week beverage for a lot of Americans,” Shufelt said. “And as the world got busier, work started to follow everyone home on their phones and you had to be available 24/7, driving cars a lot more, that went from seven days to five days to two days — the average U.S. consumer has 0.1 drinks or less per week, on average.”

“[NA beer] is a really good way to add back a lot of those occasions, a lot of that social connectivity, a lot of the delicious culinary occasions. Mathematically, that’s why I think that 20% surely isn’t the ceiling of this category, I think it can go way further,” he added.

Though Shufelt was quick to admit he’s a “delusionally optimistic person” (cue laughter from the crowd), his brand has already gone a long way toward justifying those lofty expectations.

Founded in 2017, Athletic is now the largest dedicated non-alcoholic brewery in America. The brand’s facilities in Connecticut and California produce nearly 20 different brews and have garnered high-profile collaborations with the likes of Arsenal FC and country singer Walker Hayes. Shufelt says his company currently holds an 18% share of NA beer in the country, and an impressive 38% share of on-premise sales in bars and restaurants.

Athletic’s meteoric ascent has left some insiders scratching their heads — but Shufelt says that his company is simply responding to a gap in the market.

“When you go back even 10 years ago, non-alcoholic beer was a total afterthought,” Shufelt remarked. “There basically weren’t options, and it structurally wasn’t available in this country.”

Emphasis on “this country.” Non-alcoholic beer may feel like a recent innovation in a market dominated by coastal IPAs and hard seltzers, but the category has had a long track record of success with overseas consumers. NA beer accounts for about 10% of total beer sales in Germany, making it the third-largest genre behind pilsners and lagers. In Spain, the category makes up nearly 14% of all beer consumed by volume.

Shifting trends in the U.S. may soon skew consumption closer to our European contemporaries. Younger consumers appear to be drinking less alcohol than the generations before them, a trend that has coincided with a broad, though loosely defined, “wellness” movement spearheaded by all manner of adaptogenic, THC and protein products. Accessibility and transparency are the buzzwords of the day, and NA beer is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the zeitgeist in a way that traditional beers have long struggled to.

“99% of the time all of us are awake, people are not under the influence of alcohol,” Shufelt said. “And beer can fit in a lot of those occasions when it’s just delicious, portable… I will say, my commute beer is my favorite beer every day.”